"Thinking back to the dire state of the market at the outset of the pandemic, it's such a testament to the incredible durability of the entire automotive industry — and the resilience of the American consumer — that we've seen such a healthy rebound in new car purchases this year," said Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds' executive director of insights. "A big comeback story of 2020 is without a doubt the recovery of retail vehicle sales, which have nearly returned to pre-pandemic levels."
Edmunds experts note that the steady rise in average transaction prices (ATP) was another bright spot for the industry, because the increase also helped drive profitability for automakers and dealers. Edmunds analysts anticipate that the ATP for new vehicles will surpass the $40,000 mark for the first time on record in December as consumers continue to show no qualms about upsizing their purchases in favor of bigger vehicles with more amenities.
"It's certainly not much of a buyer's market right now: Inventory is still in short supply in certain areas, and automakers and dealers aren't faced with the pressure to use big discounts to clear out their lots like they normally do at this time of year," said Caldwell. "Although that's not stopping higher-earning consumers from continuing to enter the new market like they have throughout 2020, car shoppers who are a bit more price-sensitive might want to skip holiday shopping and wait until next year if they're looking for big bargains."
Looking ahead to 2021, Edmunds analysts note that there are still uncertainties ahead, but they remain confident that industry sales will continue at a steady pace without a dramatic decline like the one seen at the outset of the pandemic.
"Even if we face another wave of retail shutdowns, the good news is that dealers are far better prepared now for selling virtually than ever before," said Caldwell. "And vaccines on the way should only help keep consumer confidence high."
QUARTERLY SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER | |||||
Sales | 2020 Q4 | Q4 2019 | Q3 2020 | Change | Change |
GM | 753,811 | 735,909 | 665,277 | 2.4% | 13.3% |
Toyota | 652,940 | 604,017 | 558,449 | 8.1% | 16.9% |
Ford | 517,309 | 601,862 | 551,796 | -14.0% | -6.2% |
FCA | 498,042 | 542,519 | 507,351 | -8.2% | -1.8% |
Honda | 365,915 | 401,961 | 388,433 | -9.0% | -5.8% |
Hyundai/Kia | 341,337 | 340,482 | 339,586 | 0.3% | 0.5% |
Nissan | 224,231 | 301,291 | 221,150 | -25.6% | 1.4% |
VW/Audi | 135,282 | 150,807 | 135,063 | -10.3% | 0.2% |
Industry | 4,036,744 | 4,280,263 | 3,924,968 | -5.7% | 2.8% |
QUARTERLY MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER | |||||
Market | 2020 Q4 | Q4 2019 | Q3 2020 | Change | Change |
GM | 18.7% | 17.2% | 16.9% | 8.6% | 10.2% |
Toyota | 16.2% | 14.1% | 14.2% | 14.6% | 13.7% |
Ford | 12.8% | 14.1% | 14.1% | -8.9% | -8.8% |
FCA | 12.3% | 12.7% | 12.9% | -2.7% | -4.6% |
Honda | 9.1% | 9.4% | 9.9% | -3.5% | -8.4% |
Hyundai/Kia | 8.5% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 6.3% | -2.3% |
Nissan | 5.6% | 7.0% | 5.6% | -21.1% | -1.4% |
VW/Audi | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.4% | -4.9% | -2.6% |
ANNUAL SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER | |||
SALES | 2020 Forecast | 2019 Sales | Change from |
GM | 2,530,168 | 2,887,046 | -12.4% |
Toyota | 2,105,165 | 2,382,852 | -11.7% |
Ford | 2,019,304 | 2,422,698 | -16.7% |
FCA | 1,819,247 | 2,203,663 | -17.4% |
Honda | 1,346,634 | 1,608,170 | -16.3% |
Hyundai/Kia | 1,224,397 | 1,323,496 | -7.5% |
Nissan | 880,315 | 1,345,681 | -34.6% |
VW/Audi | 492,539 | 587,433 | -16.2% |
Industry | 14,416,447 | 17,058,892 | -15.5% |
ANNUAL MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER | |||
Market Share | 2020 Forecast | 2019 Sales | Change from |
GM | 17.6% | 16.9% | 4% |
Toyota | 14.6% | 14.0% | 5% |
Ford | 14.0% | 14.2% | -1% |
FCA | 12.6% | 12.9% | -2% |
Honda | 9.3% | 9.4% | -1% |
Hyundai/Kia | 8.5% | 7.8% | 9% |
Nissan | 6.1% | 7.9% | -23% |
VW/Audi | 3.4% | 3.4% | -1% |
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